The U.S. power business had a particularly lively and litigious year in 2013, and signs point to more of the same in 2014. Inside the Washington Beltway, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Congress and the federal courts continue to tussle over energy and environmental policy, forcing industry participants to make expensive decisions about fuel, equipment and strategy in a policy environment where questions outnumbered answers.
For 2014, renewables and gas-fired generation look to be the clear winners, while coal and nuclear are the big losers. We see that trend continuing for several more years. But around 2017, some wonder if federal efforts to clean and decarbonize the nation’s power supply will create once again a competitive opening for nuclear power. In the U.S., Industrial Info Resources is tracking 1,608 new-build electric generation projects that are scheduled to kick off between 2014 and 2018. These projects represent about 194 GW of new generating capacity, with a total investment value (TIV) of several hundred billion dollars. We do not expect all of those projects to begin on schedule. In fact, based on historical construction starts data for the power generation industry, less than half of these projects will begin turning dirt over the next five years. Over the next five years, developers plan to begin construction on: 119 GW of renewable generation; 69 GW of gas-fired generation; 3.1 GW of nuclear generation; and 2 GW of coal-fired generation. Our project data covers new build generation of all types, unit additions, industrial energy projects and pollution-control projects.
(You can read the remaining 4 pages of this insightful market analysis in the Turbomachinery International Handbook 2014.)