Dip in gas turbine unit sales forecast for 2014-2017

December 10 2013 - Bill Schmalzer

Forecast International predicts sales of 1,072 gas turbines for electrical power production in 2014, increasing steadily to 1,300 units by 2023. The value of production will be $18.4 billion in 2014, rising to $22.3 billion by 2023.

Annual growth in global gas turbine unit sales will drop from 2.3% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2017. A rebound of 2% is likely in 2018, maintaining 3% over the next three years. Value of production is expected to average 1.7% over the next ten years, with the least growth again in the span from 2016 to 2018.

Nearly 60% of the turbines produced in the coming decade will be of an output below 50 MW, corresponding to the needs of developing countries, distributed generation and peaking power requirements.

These units in simple cycle are also likely to find use in conjunction with renewable energy power plants, helping them keep their generating profile level. Larger output gas turbine machines will typically be installed in combined cycle service for power generation, industrial cogeneration or combined heat and power applications.

In the coming decade, we project that 11,769 gas turbines will be built for electrical power generation, having a value of production in excess of $205 billion (in current U.S. calendar-year dollars).

General Electric is projected to again be the leading market player in terms of value of production, with a 47% share. In terms of the number of machines manufactured, Caterpillar’s Solar Turbines in San Diego, California, will be the leading player, with over 24%.

 (You can read the remaining 4 pages of this insightful market analysis in the Turbomachinery International Handbook 2014)