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Dan Heintzelman, President & CEO GE Oil & Gas, talks about industry drivers, turbomachinery technology and the growth of unconventionals.
What are the ongoing trends?
Population growth has to be understood. There will be 8.3 billion people by 2030 and Asia will realize 85 percent growth in its middle class. Therefore about 80 million more barrels of oil equivalent per day of new production capacity will be needed by 2020. We can achieve that, but it won’t be easy as conventional resources are being rapidly depleted. Other factors that need to be taken into account are a rise in electricity demand of 75 percent and water demand of 54 percent by 2030, while CO2 emissions will jump 35 percent in that same time period.
How is this changing the industry?
We will see a 5X increase in CAPEX per barrel of new capacity between 2008 and 2016. We will also undergo 9 percent growth in unconventional industry spend between 2012 and 2015 as well as 14 percent growth in subsea spending. Access to unconventional resources is exploding. Our aim is to introduce solutions to improve recovery rates while lessening their environmental impact.
What technological advances are you introducing?
Our Integrated Compressor Line (ICL) is now available in a single-shaft version with one impeller, two magnetic bearings, no split parts and a power range of 2 to 15 MW. Also, watch out for mechanical drive versions of the GE LM6000 MD/PH and LMS100 MD aeroderivative gas turbines in the very near future.
Any barriers that must be overcome?
The talent gap is a big challenge. About 50 percent of North American and Western European engineers will be eligible to retire by 2015. So we have to build a new workforce. That means attracting, hiring, retaining and training the next generation. Manpower is an important component of our industry. We are working hard on this, with our hiring and training at record pace, but it will remain a challenge over the coming years due to increasing competition for talent.
More in March/April 2013 issue of Turbomachinery International