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Rolls-Royce will dominate the naval gas turbine market during the 2016-2030 period, according to data contained within Forecast International's Platinum Forecast System® version 3.1. During this time, manufacturers of marine gas turbines are forecast to produce some 1,020 engines worth $8.5 billion. Rolls-Royce will hold 31.4 percent of the marine gas turbine market in terms of market value, followed by Zorya-Mashproekt of Ukraine with 29.1 percent and GE Power with 28.9 percent. Together, these three companies will account for almost 90 percent of marine gas turbine sales for the next 15 years.
Zorya's UGT gas turbines remain largely confined to the home markets represented by the parent company and its licensees in India and China. As a result, the gas turbine propulsion market continues to be largely driven by the GE LM2500 and the Rolls‑Royce MT30, with the Rolls- Royce MT7 now having a near-monopoly on known demand for smaller turbines.
Stuart Slade, senior analyst for FI's Industrial & Marine Turbine Forecast, says that fully integrated electric drive is becoming the powertrain configuration of choice for future naval vessels. "Gas turbine-powered electric drive offers significant anticipated benefits for warships in terms of reducing ship life-cycle costs and increasing ship stealthiness, payload, survivability, and the amount of power available for non-propulsion uses," said Slade.
While marine gas turbines now dominate naval warship construction, they have failed to make a significant impact on the civilian sector, where the cost-efficiency of diesels is paramount. One exception is the cruise ship market, where GE Marine Engines' GE LM2500+ COGES (combined gas turbine and steam turbine integrated electric drive system) plant powers Royal Caribbean International's Brilliance of the Seas cruise ship. Gas turbines have a significant advantage in this sector, Slade says, since "the LM2500+ COGES ships operate on clean distillate fuel to significantly reduce emissions of most airborne pollutants and other particulates, as compared to a diesel-electric power system operating on distillate fuel oil. This is important inshore, where cruise ships spend much of their time."