LNG Market
In April 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipated a modest increase in U.S. LNG exports for the year (2%), followed by significant growth in 2025 (an additional 18%). This growth is mirrored by expectations for a rise in U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline (3% in 2024, 4% in 2025) and a slight dip and recovery in pipeline imports in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Concurrently, S&P Global Ratings forecasted stable hydrocarbon prices supported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), alongside a year-end rebound in gas prices driven by LNG export expansion and infrastructure developments.
“Low U.S. natural gas prices will likely continue for at least the next 10 years, fueling more LNG developments due to the low base price of natural gas,” said Marybeth McBain Product Line Manager - IGC New Apparatus, Global Sales at Ebara Elliott Energy.
This price point will not only bolster further LNG developments but also the construction of natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plants. “The low and cleaner natural gas fuel will propel more NGCC power plants to be constructed, which provide reliable baseload power to supplement a growing renewables portfolio for the U.S. electric grid—eight new NGCC plants since 2022. This favors all gas-fired turbomachinery supporting the natural gas industry in the United States,” McBain said.
In this context, emerging trends such as modularization and the adoption of e-LNG technologies are reshaping the industry. “LNG projects are requiring modularization to eliminate risk in the field, i.e., stick built, in addition to a decline in available field labor,” said Joel Schubert, Director of Business Development LNG at Siemens Energy. “We also see a trend for future LNG projects going forward with e-LNG (electric motor drives) to reduce emissions and their carbon footprint.”
Moreover, the broader shift toward decarbonization and emissions reduction in LNG projects has started to affect LNG new developments. “Operators are considering greenhouse gas emissions, making changes in design accordingly, and moving toward electrification of some, if not all, of the major compression/pumps in the LNG plant,” McBain said.