Addressing the Energy Trilemma: Key Takeaways from Nico Schmaeling’s TPS 2025 Keynote

Nico Schmaeling

In an era of heightened global uncertainty and accelerating energy demand, Nico Schmaeling, Vice President of Product Portfolios and New Energy Solutions Strategy at John Crane, delivered a pragmatic keynote address at the 2025 Turbomachinery & Pump Symposia (TPS), taking place this week in Houston, TX. Speaking to a packed room of turbomachinery professionals, Schmaeling tackled the “energy trilemma”—security, affordability, and sustainability—providing insight, actionable strategies, and a call for collaborative innovation across the rotating equipment sector.

The Energy Trilemma: A Renewed Focus

Schmaeling emphasized that the energy trilemma is not a new framework, but one whose balance has shifted significantly in recent years.

“To me, the narrative has changed,” Schmaeling said. “Affordability and security are much more prominent in recent discussions.” This shift, he explained, is a direct result of mounting geopolitical instability, fragile supply chains, and volatile energy markets—particularly in regions like Europe, where the impacts of war and supply shocks have placed tremendous strain on industrial competitiveness and national energy planning.

Schmaeling emphasized that any realistic roadmap for the future must acknowledge the inherent tensions among these three priorities. For instance, accelerating the transition to renewables without securing reliable backup systems risks undermining grid stability. Conversely, doubling down on fossil fuels for the sake of short-term energy security could derail long-term decarbonization goals.

To illustrate the complexity of this balancing act, he pointed to recent disruptions in global energy systems and referenced the "Big Beautiful Bill"—a nod to major legislative efforts in the US driving energy transition investments. “We’re living in a time where energy infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental transformation,” he said. “And the pressure to deliver is growing—not just from governments and regulators, but from markets, end users, and communities.”

He underscored that rotating equipment manufacturers, service providers, and operators must be more than bystanders in this transformation. “The role of rotating equipment in all of this cannot be overstated,” he added. “We’re not just supporting the energy sector—we are the energy sector.”

With the global population and GDP steadily increasing, Schmaeling called on industry professionals to treat the energy trilemma not as a constraint, but as a strategic framework for innovation. “Security, affordability, and sustainability—this is the reality we must engineer for,” he said.

Security: Meeting Surging Demand with Resilience

With global GDP and population projected to rise steadily into the 2050s, Schmaeling predicted a 9% increase in energy demand under the IEA’s baseline scenario—an enormous opportunity for the turbomachinery sector. He highlighted data centers and AI computing workloads as accelerating demand well beyond traditional growth rates. “By 2030, energy consumption from data centers is expected to double. By 2050, 4,000 terawatt-hours will be consumed by data centers alone,” he said.

Importantly, Schmaeling underscored the role of rotating equipment in bolstering grid resilience, referencing a recent 15 GW blackout in Spain. “It only took five seconds to wipe out 60% of the Iberian Peninsula’s electricity. Inertia is key—and inertia comes from heavy rotating equipment,” he said, pointing to the need for flywheels and other equipment that add grid stability.

Affordability: Competitive Energy is Industrial Lifeblood

Schmaeling did not mince words about the industrial toll of high energy prices. “Industrial production needs competitive energy prices—period,” he stated. Using a stark map of shuttered European fertilizer and ammonia facilities, Schmaeling illustrated the tight link between energy affordability and production viability.

“Everything in red means a ceased production site,” he said, noting that in many cases, spikes in energy prices have temporarily or permanently shut down chemical and fertilizer manufacturing, driving up costs and reducing market capacity.

His advice? Tap into abundant, cost-effective renewable sources. “Solar and wind still make perfect sense and can drive down costs—particularly for regions struggling with the volatility of fossil fuel imports,” he added.

Sustainability: Efficiency and Innovation as Twin Pillars

John Crane’s legacy in mechanical seals positioned Schmaeling well to discuss how micro-level design changes can yield macro-level sustainability impacts.

“The beauty of efficiency is we can start acting right now,” he said. With tribological losses accounting for 23% of global energy consumption—20% from friction, 3% from wear and tear—he urged operators to rethink how equipment is designed, upgraded, and maintained.

Key strategies he highlighted include:

• Dry gas seal upgrades to reduce friction and heat generation.
• Diamond-coated seal faces to lower the coefficient of friction and reduce system load.
• Condition-based monitoring to extend meantime between failures (MTBF).
• Compressor re-rates to ensure equipment operates at optimal efficiency.

Additionally, Schmaeling explored the pivotal role of rotating equipment in emerging clean energy value chains—from blue hydrogen to supercritical CO₂ power cycles. “Compression and pumping are the energy-intensive heart of both ecosystems,” he said. “We’ve received inquiries for supercritical CO₂ with extremely high temperatures, and for liquid hydrogen systems operating at -253°C. That’s an enormous range of design challenges—and opportunities.”

Alternative Fuels and the Circular Economy

Highlighting developments in biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Schmaeling pointed to the U.S.’s rich feedstock base in the Corn Belt and Southeast, as well as DOE-backed research into non-food, cellulosic fuels. “Sustainable fuels are the only option for hard-to-electrify transport, including aviation,” he said, noting that US biofuel is increasingly coming from cooking oil and animal fats—cutting landfill use and methane emissions.

A Call to Partner for Impact

Schmaeling closed with a rallying cry for collaboration. “No company on its own will overcome these technical and market challenges,” he said. “Let’s partner for impact. Benchmark your critical trains. Optimize your compressors. Train your people. And let’s share the progress when we meet again at TPS next year.”

His keynote served not only as a strategic roadmap for navigating the energy trilemma, but as a powerful reminder that the rotating equipment community has both the tools—and the responsibility—to power a more secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future.

Stay with Turbomachinery International all week for more coverage from TPS 2025.