As the global energy landscape evolves, recent projections and industry updates highlight the dynamic shifts within the global natural gas sector. In April 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipated a modest increase in U.S. LNG exports for the year (2%) followed by significant growth in 2025 (an additional 18%). This growth is mirrored by expectations for a rise in U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline (3% in 2024, 4% in 2025) and a slight dip and recovery in pipeline imports in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Concurrently, S&P Global Ratings forecasted stable hydrocarbon prices supported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), alongside a year-end rebound in gas prices driven by LNG export expansion and infrastructure developments.

“Low U.S. natural gas prices will likely continue for at least the next 10 years, fueling more LNG developments due to the low base price of natural gas,” said Marybeth McBain Product Line Manager - IGC New Apparatus, Global Sales at Ebara Elliott Energy.

This price point will not only bolster further LNG developments but also the construction of natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) power plants. “The low and cleaner natural gas fuel will propel more NGCC power plants to be constructed, which provide reliable baseload power to supplement a growing renewables portfolio for the U.S. electric grid—eight new NGCC plants since 2022. This favors all gas-fired turbomachinery supporting the natural gas industry in the United States,” McBain said.

In this context, emerging trends such as modularization and the adoption of e-LNG technologies are reshaping the industry. “LNG projects are requiring modularization to eliminate risk in the field, i.e., stick built, in addition to a decline in available field labor,” said Joel Schubert, Director of Business Development LNG at Siemens Energy. “We also see a trend for future LNG projects going forward with e-LNG (electric motor drives) to reduce emissions and their carbon footprint.”

Moreover, the broader shift toward decarbonization and emissions reduction in LNG projects has started to affect LNG new developments. “Operators are considering greenhouse gas emissions, making changes in design accordingly, and moving toward electrification of some, if not all, of the major compression/pumps in the LNG plant,” McBain said.

Furthermore, Christopher Campos, Area Sales Manager, New Apparatus at Ebara Elliott Energy, said, “The offshore LNG market remains strong despite the current slowdown in the market due to pricing and policy shifts.” He said offshore floating LNG (FLNG) units continue to drive investors to look at capacity space with a limited number of shipyards. “In 2023, we saw Petronas invest in its third FLNG unit while 2024 saw a final investment decision (FID) by Cedar LNG for Canada. Golar is looking at re-purposing Golar Hilli Episeyo for its next area of operation in Argentina. Genting FLNG, an investment by Genting Oil & Gas in Indonesia, contracted out the construction of its first FLNG unit in 2024.”

Two trends are poised to send the global LNG markets into oversupply within two years: lackluster demand growth combined with a massive wave of new export capacity, according to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 

The global LNG market is slated to experience a shift starting in late 2024, as a wave of new liquefaction projects comes online. IEEFA expects global LNG production capacity (only projects under construction or approved by financially capable backers) to grow by roughly 193 MTPA from 2024 - 2028, rising from ~474 MTPA of nameplate capacity at the beginning of 2024 to 666.5 MTPA by the end of 2028—the fastest capacity growth in the history of the global LNG industry, representing a 40% increase in five years.

During 2024, only 12 MTPA of liquefaction capacity is slated to come online in the Republic of Congo, Mexico, Russia, Mauritania/Senegal, Australia, and the United States. Two of these new projects shipped their first cargoes earlier this year. But late 2024/early 2025 will see a new wave of LNG supply: IEEFA expects ~ 37 MTPA of new LNG facilities to start operations in 2025, with 57 MTPA of new capacity in 2026—the most ever built in a single year. IEEFA sees more LNG capacity additions of (

Note, this excludes any proposed global LNG projects that have not reached FID and the several projects that are moving forward but don’t have a completion date until 2029 or later.

Structural LNG demand growth faces challenges, according to IEEFA: economic, political, financial, and logistical. “The global LNG crisis of the last several years heightened those challenges, spurring some Asian nations to reduce the role of LNG in their development plans and accelerate the development of alternative energy sources.”

Combined imports fell in 2023 in Japan, South Korea, and Europe—a trio of countries that account for more than half of the world’s LNG demand—and IEEFA predicts they will likely continue falling through 2030.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a decline in Russian gas supply to Europe that led to a spike in European LNG imports. However, prices have retreated from 2022 levels, largely due to falling demand from developed economies.

The United States, Australia, and Qatar produced three-fifths of the world’s LNG in 2023. Now, for the first time, the United States is no. 1 among global LNG exporters—the first U.S. LNG terminal started up on the Gulf Coast in early 2016. Most of the new LNG capacity slated through 2028 will be concentrated in the United States and Qatar, pushing Australia—the world’s top LNG exporter in 2021 and 2022—to third among global suppliers.

Mark Axford, President of Axford Turbine Consultants, cited in his report from CERAWeek 2024 a disrupting event that completely changed the worldwide energy picture and pushed the United States to the top: “The Nord Stream pipeline blowing up in 2022 was the single-most important occurrence in energy markets in decades. Since then, the United States has gone from third in LNG production to no. 1, with 24% share.”

Today, there are seven operating LNG facilities in the continental United States, with a combined nameplate capacity of 92.3 MTPA of LNG, about one-fifth of the world’s total (

IEEFA said the LNG industry’s capacity to export U.S. gas is set to grow from 94 MTPA to 172 MTPA by 2028. Five U.S. LNG projects, totaling more than 71 MTPA in liquefaction capacity, are currently under construction:

An expansion at Corpus Christi LNG (10 MTPA)

A 1.4-MTPA Mexican project sourced with U.S. gas recently shipped its first cargo and an additional 6 MTPA of U.S.-sourced LNG projects are moving forward in Mexico. IEEFA reports:

The development of the North Field complex will boost Qatar’s liquefaction capacity by 64 MTPA through 2030.

The initial phase of the 20-MTPA Arctic LNG 2 project received its first gas in late 2023.

The country’s first commercial-scale LNG plant is slated to start operations in 2025 or 2026.

Five projects have reached FID or are under construction in Africa.

Campos said that additional LNG carrier fleets have been added to the new-build bookings to support new liquefaction terminals coming online in Qatar, the United States, and Canada. Continued investment in bunkering vessels and LNG-as-a-fuel is still contributing to new-build bookings.

The industry continues to move forward with successful deliveries and progress for liquefaction and pipeline projects.

Siemens Energy successfully delivered, commissioned, and commercially operated its hybrid application for Chart Energy and Chemicals: a nitrogen refrigeration compressor STC-GV (20-3-H) package, powered by a STG-300 2S LE gas turbine. It integrates a synchronous motor/generator into a turbine-compressor configuration and includes online changeover capabilities from motor-to-generator modes and vice versa, supporting a transition to low-emission technology in compliance with local environmental regulations. The integration ensures that surplus power generated by Siemens Energy’s equipment contributes to the local power grid.

Siemens Energy has several recent and upcoming shipments and updates regarding Woodfibre LNG, a 2.1 MTPA export facility with 250,000 cubic meters of floating storage capacity being built near Squamish, British Columbia:

Boil-off gas (BOG) compressors 1 & 2 were successfully delivered on July 16.

Feed gas booster (FGB) compressor will be shipped in mid-August—the company is waiting for date/vessel confirmation from MDR.

BOG/FGB Powerhouses will be delivered at the end of September.

All main refrigeration (MF) and propane (C3) compressors have been successfully tested.

MR LP completed unit test preparation. String test is currently planned for the end of August.

Delivery of the LP MR train is planned for mid-October.

MR HP/C3 Complete Unit Test is planned for the end of November.

Delivery of the MR HP/C3 train is planned for January 2025.

Cheniere said it remains full-speed ahead on its current and future expansion projects. It continues to make progress on its Corpus Christi Liquefaction (CCL) Stage 3 Project and remains optimistic that it will achieve first LNG from the first train by the end of the year.

“We are confident we will secure all the regulatory approvals needed for the Midscale Trains 8 & 9 Project at Corpus Christi and the Sabine Pass Liquefaction (SPL) Expansion Project within our expected timelines,” said Bernardo Fallas, Director of Communications at Cheniere. “We recently received our environmental assessment for Midscale Trains 8 & 9, and we are in pre-filing with FERC for the SPL Expansion Project.”

In terms of pipelines, Fallas said the Sabine Crossing Pipeline Project is proposing a 58-mile pipeline extending east from Texas to the proposed SPL Expansion Project in Cameron, Louisiana, to support the natural gas needs of the project. The proposed pipeline would transport up to a maximum of approximately 2.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas to SPL from receipt points to be developed.

On July 1, the ADCC Pipeline entered commercial service and can provide approximately 1.7 Bcf/d of natural gas transportation capacity to the Cheniere CCL facility from markets on Whistler Pipeline’s Agua Dulce Header in South Texas.

In late July, Texas LNG Brownsville announced that they converted the two heads of agreement (HOA) with EQT Corp. to a definitive tolling agreement for 2.0 MTPA of LNG offtake. The FID is anticipated by late 2024/early 2025.

Also in late July, Woodside Energy purchased Tellurian Driftwood LNG—it is looking to reach FID in the first quarter of 2025; as part of the FID process, Woodside plans to examine equity sell-down options (up to 50%).

In January 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) paused new authorizations for LNG exports to non-free trade agreement (NFTA) nations. The industry pushed back heavily on the pause, calling it “the worst energy decision made so far by the current administration,” according to Mike Sommers, President & CEO of the American Petroleum Institute.

Some projects were affected by the pause: Commonwealth LNG was stalled and is costing the project millions due to inflation while it sits still. In late June, Kimmeridge Texas Gas closed a follow-on control investment in Commonwealth LNG, raising its equity ownership to 90%. After selling his control to Kimmeridge, Founder and Executive Chairman of Commonwealth LNG, Paul Varello, announced his retirement. The pause also impacted Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) LNG in Louisiana; however, on June 27, FERC issued a certificate that allowed CP2 to move forward.

But industry agencies said the pause would not alter the short-term trajectory of the U.S. LNG buildout. In April, IEEFA said: “Five new U.S. liquefaction projects, as well as two Mexican projects sourced with U.S. gas, are under construction and have already been cleared to export to NFTA nations. The projects have a collective capacity of 78 MTPA, meaning—pause or no—the U.S. gas industry is preparing for 85% growth in LNG export capacity by 2028.”

McBain said: “There remains a general acknowledgment in the industry that LNG expansions are continuing to move forward with FERC on a case-by-case basis. Also, the sentiment is that more LNG new licenses will be approved once the election is finalized— regardless of which political party wins.”

Relief came on July 1, when U.S. District Judge James Cain in Lake Charles, LA, ordered the Administration to lift the pause until a lawsuit brought on by 16 Republican-led states—who argued that freezing approvals of LNG exports was “completely without reason or logic”—could be resolved.

“We are encouraged by the recent ruling and expect it will facilitate DOE’s continued processing of LNG export applications,” Fallas said. “We previously stated that we did not believe the DOE pause materially impacted the timelines of our overall projects, and we continue to believe that to be true.”

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61863#:~:text=We%20forecast%20that%20U.S.%20LNG,and%20by%204%25%20in%202025

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230627-clear-lng-outlook-could-turn-murky-near-end-of-decade-12770037

Articles

The global LNG market has been impacted by new liquefaction capacity, price fluctuations, and political intervention yet it is slated to grow at an unprecedented rate through 2028.

The Global LNG Market: The Rise of LNG Production

ASME’s 2024 Turbomachinery Technical Conference & Exposition in London, held June 24 – 28 at ExCeL London, welcomed more than 111 exhibiting companies from 22 countries, up from 89 exhibitors at the last Europe-based event in 2022. More than 2,500 attendees networked, attended technical presentations, and walked the exhibitor floor.

“ASME's Turbo Expo continues to attract leaders from industry, government agencies, and academia thanks to its strong reputation and program, which includes companies shaping the future of propulsion and power,” said ASME’s Executive Director and CEO Tom Costabile.

GAS TURBINES' INTEGRAL ROLE IN A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

Day two of Turbo Expo 2024 kicked off with the panel session, 

The Gas Turbine’s Role in the Decarbonized Power Generation Portfolio

. Executives, engineers, technical leaders, and managers from GE Vernova, Mitsubishi Power, Siemens Energy, and Solar Turbines discussed the challenges with production, transport, and storage of lower-carbon fuels; advancements to combustion systems; retrofits, and more.

Moderator Jeffrey Benoit, Vice President – Global Clean Energy Solutions, PSM – a Hanwha Company, broke out the “new” combustion systems into two sections:

newly manufactured gas turbines from OEMs

new technology retrofits for gas turbine fleets currently in operation

Peter Stuttaford, CEO of Thomassen Energy (TEM), a Hanwha Company, talked about the company’s FlameSheet combustion system retrofit that can be installed in most OEM’s gas turbines F-class and below. The platform offers fuel flexibility, operational range improvement, ultra-low NOx emissions, and entitlement lifecycle costs. In a gas turbine power plant—a GE Frame 7E in Daesan Korea—FlameSheet operated up to 60% hydrogen by volume.

The transport, production, and storage of lower-carbon fuels have historically presented many challenges. Robert Schrecengost—Division Director of H2 with Carbon Management at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Fossil Energy & Carbon Management—said overall advancement in terms of hydrogen production has been made with electrolyzers, “but storing and/or transportation to the site is a major investment that will be regionally focused,” he said. “Hydrogen hubs should start many of these in motion, but the Gulf region in the United States has the most hydrogen pipelines installed. Repurposing natural gas pipelines is being discussed in various locations but going to 100% hydrogen will still be a hurdle. A typical F-class gas turbine needs roughly 20K kg per hour of hydrogen. Pipelines or massive production and storage on-site will be necessary.”

Panelist Jason Jermark, VP of Global Service Operations at Siemens Energy, said: “Siemens Energy is actively addressing the challenge of ramping up production of alternative fuels and thus ensuring that sustainable hydrogen and its derivatives become available in relevant quantities and at competitive prices. In cooperation with various partners, we have launched projects to achieve this goal. In Chile, for example, Siemens Energy has teamed up with HIF Global, Porsche, and other companies to build ‘Haru Oni,’ an integrated and large-scale commercial plant to produce carbon-neutral fuels from wind power and water.”

However, according to Jermark, the foundation of the market ramp-up is based on the availability of electrolyzers to produce sustainable green hydrogen. “Air Liquide and Siemens Energy operate a multi-gigawatt electrolyzer production facility in Berlin that enables the supply of large-scale projects worldwide. One of the first projects supplied from the new production facility is a collaboration with Orsted to build one of Europe's largest commercial facilities, FlagshipOne, for carbon-neutral marine fuels in Sweden,” he said.

According to Carlos Koeneke, Technical Director at Mitsubishi Power Systems Americas, “the appetite” to produce, store, and co-fire low-carbon fuels is higher in regions of the world where fossil fuels are expensive. “In Asia, for example, most countries import LNG, which is not only more expensive than natural gas in terms of production, but shipping it usually involves long distances across oceans. These circumstances make hydrogen production economically reasonable in the affected countries.”

He said the long transport distances have created an additional incentive to use ammonia as a hydrogen carrier, as it does not require maintaining hydrogen at low temperatures.

“One new trend is co-firing ammonia directly instead of converting it back to hydrogen through the use of cracking,” Koeneke noted. “Several tests are currently being conducted to burn ammonia in conventional boilers and directly in gas turbines.”

“All OEMs have decades of experience co-firing hydrogen with diffusion combustors,” Koeneke said. “The percentage of hydrogen has been high in cases of refinery by-product gases (in the order of 90% or higher). The current challenge is mainly related to the use of dry-low NOx combustors, where the risk of abnormal combustion, among others, associated with flashback requires testing and combustor modifications.”

Technological innovations are accommodating fuel flexibility. However, how these newer systems work with existing installations depends heavily on the specific gas turbine, according to Jermark, given the “wide range of over 20 different frames currently in operation, as well as the type of fuel being used—which includes options such as hydrogen co-firing, 100% hydrogen, (fully) cracked ammonia, direct ammonia combustion, methanol, HVO, and FAME,” he said. “Working in combination with various partners, we have recent examples of both pilot applications and scalable solutions. The goal for all new fuel-flexibility developments is to be retrofittable to ensure that they can be seamlessly integrated into the existing fleet with minimal modification.”

Panelist Daniel Reitz, Manager of Marketing and Product Strategy at Solar Turbines, said over the years, Solar Turbines has accumulated experience operating on a wide variety of fuels by adapting the combustion and auxiliary hardware—pumps, valves, etc.—to the fuel properties and is continuing to do that for low-carbon fuels.

“The low-carbon fuels such as renewable natural gas, bio-propane, biogas, biodiesel blends, renewable diesel, and hydrogen-natural gas blends have physical and chemical properties similar to the fuels we have experience operating our turbines on already,” Reitz said. “We characterize them as drop-in fuels, which means we have hardware available to burn these fuels. Regarding fuels with properties very different from drop-in fuels, hardware modifications or development is needed to support them.”

Gas turbines are said to become "fully decarbonized, dispatchable energy sources" that could support and balance intermittent power sources.

According to Reitz: “Gas turbines are inherently flexible and allow for easy adaptation to a wide variety of fuels with different characteristics. In addition to providing fuel flexibility, gas turbines provide high efficiency, low emissions, high availability, high reliability, and high-power density.”

With a larger integration of renewables, dispatchable gas turbines will become more necessary. “In future decarbonized energy systems where renewable energy sources play a significant role, there will be a growing need for dispatchable power to bridge longer periods of low renewable energy generation. While current battery technologies may face limitations in terms of storage capacity, gas turbine power plants offer the capability to quickly provide reliable power, as well as heat through combined heat-and-power generation, and deliver essential grid services,” Jermark said.

TURBOMACHINERY STRATEGIES FOR A CLEAN-ENERGY FUTURE

Flexibility and turbine advancements were the focal point of Wednesday’s panel session: 

Turbomachinery Solutions for Decentralized Energy Systems: Addressing Clean, Dispatchable, and Affordable Energy

. The panel—moderated by Giuseppe Tilocca, Scientific Officer, and Christer Björkqvist, Managing Director, at ETN Global—noted three major strategies addressing the challenges with current gas turbines and turbomachinery and a decrease in flexible capacity: fuel flexibility, digitalization, and efficiency improvements.

“Gas turbines and turbomachinery are evolving by pushing the boundaries of their inherent flexibility to provide mature and cost-effective solutions thereby ensuring a reliable and sustainable energy supply during the energy transition and beyond,” Tilocca said.

The flexibility requirements, as noted by organizations such as the Joint Research Center and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, are expected to increase significantly; however, flexible capacity is decreasing. Effectively, Europe is projected to lose 107 GW of flexible capacity by 2030. This decline is driven largely by economic decommissioning.

Tilocca expanded on the strategies addressing these challenges:

 Gas turbines are being designed to operate on a variety of fuels, including hydrogen and biofuels, to ensure they can adapt to different energy sources.

 Advanced digital tools and analytics are being used to optimize operations and maintenance, allowing turbines to perform efficiently under varying conditions.

 Continuous advancements in turbine technology are improving the overall efficiency of these systems, reducing emissions, and lowering operating costs.

These measures are critical for ensuring that gas turbines remain a viable and sustainable option in a cleaner energy future. Moreover, Sean Fitzpatrick, CEO at Pure World Energy and operator of several microgrids, stressed the need to foster education and communication regarding the positive role of turbomachinery in the net-zero transition.

“Turbomachines are flexible solutions that by smart integration with renewables and storage systems will provide flexibility to decentralized systems and reduce the demand on national grids,” he said.

New combustion systems that enhance fuel flexibility are already available and being integrated into existing infrastructure. For example, Tilocca noted that the German Aerospace Center (DLR) has developed a retrofit system for a 100 kWe turbine adapted to run entirely on hydrogen, based on technology from Ansaldo Green Tech. This turbine is ready for commercial deployment in Germany, indicating that the technology is already available.

The main gaps these technologies address include:

By filling these gaps, new combustion technologies help reduce reliance on fossil fuels, decrease emissions, and support the transition to a sustainable energy ecosystem.

How Gas Turbines Support Decentralized Power Generation

Clean and dispatchable technologies are the future, and gas turbines are an essential component for decentralized power generation. Tilocca said that decentralized generation involves producing electricity closer to where it is used, reducing transmission losses, and enhancing grid resilience.

The key roles of gas turbines in decentralized power generation include:

Gas turbines can quickly ramp-up production to meet demand during peak periods or when fluctuating renewable sources are insufficient

 Prof. David Sanchez from the Universidad de Sevilla said gas turbines help maintain grid balance and quality.

 By complementing intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, gas turbines help ensure a stable and reliable power supply.

Several market dynamics and operating conditions must be considered to transform current energy practices and support a cleaner energy future.

To navigate these challenges, it is essential to develop cost-effective, adaptable solutions that can meet evolving market demands while supporting the transition to a sustainable and clean-energy future.

The theme of this year’s show was achievements and needs to unlock a net-zero future in propulsion and power.

Turbo Expo Showcases Gas Turbines as Part of Decarbonized Future

examines the evolution of the global energy landscape and how recent projections and industry updates highlight the dynamic shifts within the natural gas sector. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimates that LNG production capacity will increase by 40% in the next five years—the fastest capacity growth in the history of the global LNG industry. Our cover story—

—takes a deep dive into the global LNG market, including trends, newsworthy happenings, and commentary from a few industry folks on the market and the recent halt to the Department of Energy’s LNG export pause.

In tandem with our cover story on LNG is a Product Spotlight that introduces Baker Hughes’ modular LNG solution for mid-scale gas liquefaction: NMBL. In contrast to traditional large-scale liquefaction plants, mid-scale solutions based on multiple smaller modular trains represent an important innovation for the industry. Other innovations are discussed in our show report from Turbo Expo 2024. Speakers and panelists weigh in on the role of gas turbines in a sustainable energy future as new fuels are introduced, technology gaps are satisfied, and market dynamics are considered. To look back at our complete coverage, visit 

Also in this issue, Abdullah Sofiany from Aramco lays out several case studies demonstrating how machine learning techniques offer real-time anomaly detection that proactively identifies potential failures in turbomachinery. “The introduction of machine learning algorithms offers a promising solution to enhance predictive maintenance strategies and mitigate the shortcomings of conventional monitoring approaches,” Sofiany said. “By leveraging real-time operational data and advanced analytics, machine learning models can accurately identify subtle deviations in vibration patterns, even below alarm thresholds, enabling early detection of developing anomalies.”

Modernization for Ammonia Syngas Trains with Steam Turbine Drives

, Siemens Energy shares insights into the modernization of syngas trains at ammonia plants. As these plants age—many in the United States are older than 50 years—modernizing syngas trains is vital due to their significant impact on overall plant efficiency, production capacity, and operating expenses.

Amin Almasi tackles compressors with side streams, a challenging class of turbomachines, as he says, in his bi-monthly column 

. And in part one of the Myth Busters’ two-part column on centrifugal compressor maps, the duo covers the basic physics of constant speed head-flow performance lines. I hope you have a great autumn.

Click here to view the September/October 2024 issue

The September/October 2024 issue highlights the dynamic shifts in the global LNG market that are affecting exports, production, capacity growth, and more.

September/October 2024

The Global LNG Market: The Rise of LNG Production

Turbo Expo Showcases Gas Turbines as Part of Decarbonized Future

Turbomachinery International: September/October 2024