Drew Robb

Turbomachinery International recently toured the Tampa Big Bend power station on Tampa Bay, Florida. Owned and operated by Tampa Electric Company (TECO), Big Bend Units 5 & 6 at Apollo Beach, Florida, recently began commercial operation..

The Big Bend power station on Tampa Bay consists of a new combined cycle plant (right) and the original coal fired steam turbine plant (top left).

This facility has operated for decades as a coal plant. With its coal boilers and steam turbines aging, TECO carefully reviewed the best course for the long term. Project Director Kris Stryker said the price tag to upgrade the boilers and steam turbines would have been too high. And in any case, the legislative trajectory is such that heavy investment in coal equipment might not recoup its investment.

In any case, TECO already had a retirement schedule in place. Unit 2 was retired at the end of 2021. Unit 3 is scheduled for closure at the end of 2023. Of the other two units: Unit 4 will remain in service and is able to run either on coal or natural gas. Unit 1 is undergoing extensive refurbishment as part of a modernization effort. Parts of that old Westinghouse steam turbine will remain but large sections of it are currently being replaced with GE components.

The Big Bend modernization project includes two GE HA gas turbines and two HRSGs from Vogt. Steam lines (foreground on the left) reach 4000 feet from the HRSGs across a water channel to a steam turbine which in the final stages of being repowered.

Unit 1 is destined to be the final element of a new combined cycle facility that has been erected on site. Two GE 7HA.02 gas turbines, two GE H65 generators and two Vogt Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) have already been installed. The turbines are running in simple cycle mode for the moment. They can potentially burn between 15-20% hydrogen by volume in the gas stream. However, TECO does not plan to use hydrogen in these units at this time.

By September, the work on the Unit 1 steam turbine will be completed and the facility will transition to combined cycle mode. But this is no ordinary combined cycle. It takes about 4,000 feet of steam lines from the HRSGs to reach across an inlet to Unit 1. Stryker said engineers looked at many options and this was the best plan based on TECO’s need to maintain the power supply to the local area.

When completed, the gas turbines within the 1,090 MW combined cycle power plant at Big Bend will be monitored by GE’s integrated Mark* VIe control system. Data collected from sensors throughout the facility will be fed to GE’s Monitoring & Diagnostics (M&D) Center in Atlanta, GA. In addition, the GE controls feed data to an Emerson Ovation system in the central control room near Unit 1, which oversees the entire facility.

“In theory, we are losing capacity by going from 1,200 MW to 1,090 MW,” said Stryker. “But due to much higher efficiency, we will actually produce more MW hours.”

Coal-fired plants have a maximum efficiency of about 47%, and older plants tend to register a much lower number. Combined cycle power plants have surpassed 60% efficiency and some of the most modern facilities claim close to 67% efficiency. Besides efficiency gains and carbon reduction, the gas-fired plants reduce the emissions of mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and other pollutants, while also using less water than coal plants. Greenhouse gas emissions from units 1 and 2 will be reduced by more than 60%.The amount of coal used at the site will be reduced by 50% – with similar reductions in the amount of dust, byproducts and traffic related to coal.

TECO has been working to lower its emissions since 1999. Since then, Tampa Electric has reduced coal usage by more than 90% and has cut carbon dioxide emissions in half. The Big Bend modernization project is another step towards lower emissions and reducing the overall carbon footprint. The site also holds about 30 MW of solar panels, a small part of TECO’s 800 MW solar portfolio. It has also installed about 10 MW of energy storage on site. The company has set a net-zero carbon emissions target for 2050.

“Decommissioning two of our coal units and replacing them with clean-burning natural gas is another step along the path we have set to achieving net zero across all our operations,” said Stryker.

Articles

Swapping coal for gas 

With the potential threat looming of the termination of gas supplies from Russia or EU sanctions being extended from oil to natural gas, Germany is fast tracking new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities. In essence, the government plans to eliminate years of red tape to enable the deployment of four floating terminals. When in place, it will be capable of replacing more than two thirds of current Russian-supplied gas. This represents a potential boon for U.S. LNG exporters.

A statement from the German Ministry of the Economy said: “Gas supply interruptions cannot be ruled out in the current situation, so precautionary measures must be taken. The immediate and fastest possible development of more independent sources of gas is urgent.

This marks a major U-turn in German policy. Previously, they made it difficult to import US LNG due to the use of fracking, while supporting cheaper supplies from Russia. Those days are over. Once finalized, several environmental and permitting hurdles would be removed. Instead of up to five years, it might take less than a year to build the LNG terminals. As they floating terminals, the entire process is fast as they only need to charter an existing vessel, and make some infrastructure modifications to link the supply to the pipeline network. As a sign that final approvals are a formality, contracts have already been signed with utilities RWE and Uniper.

Germany fast tracks LNG 

Design and engineering software lies back of every aspect of turbomachinery and facility layout. These tools are used to figure out how to increase efficiency, heighten performance, lower costs, decrease emissions, and find the best way to arrange and integrate equipment and systems. 

There are a great many trends and influences impacting this slice of the market. And the vendor community has risen to the challenge. Let’s hear from the experts: 

Concepts NREC offers a suite of software tools starting from preliminary design through full 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD), finite element analysis (FEA) and 5-axis machining of turbomachinery. Together, the software is called the Agile Engineering Design System. New for 2022 is CyCAL, which allows the design of turbomachinery within a larger system and includes thermodynamic cycle analysis. CyCAL will be a new platform to bring together all tools in a single user environment.

“Engineers need to look at many aspects of a design in addition to the aero/hydrodynamic performance of the primary flow path,” said Peter Weitzman, President, Software Division of Concepts NREC. “A successful designer needs to simultaneously consider off-design performance, secondary (leakage, bleed, injection) flow, rotordy-namics, and product life.” 

In addition, it is not enough to look at the turbo components in isolation. Every piece of turbomachinery sits inside some larger system to accomplish a specific thermodynamic cycle. If the cycle/system layout is decided first and imposed on the turbomachinery designer, then optimal system performance may not be achieved. The turbomachinery needs to be designed concur-rently with the cycle/system to achieve competitive product performance.

Design trends are receiving a lot of impetus lately from the launch industry. The most critical part of a rocket engine is the turbopump, and designers of engines needs to design the engine cycle and turbopumps as a single system. Customers in the rocket industry want better software to accommodate engine cycle and turbopump design, and these improvements are becoming available to anyone designing turbomachinery.

“Our latest software releases have really been about moving beyond design point performance of the primary flow path,” said Weitzman. “We have added capabilities to design and analyze secondary flow in leakage paths for all classes of turbomachinery. CyCAL provides optimized cycle/system design and analysis capability.” 

The SoftInWay AxSTREAM platform is a fully integrated design, analysis, and optimization soft-ware solution for turbomachinery propulsion and power generation systems. The software includes advanced meanline/streamline, CFD, and FEA solvers, as well as thermodynamic cycle and hydraulic network modeling, rotor dynamics analysis and AI capabilities. Additionally, users can do true clean-sheet design through its generative design solver which can automatically create a design space and narrow down the design intent without introducing too much designer bias into the equation. This can help engineers make decisions about how many stages a machine should have, what the optimal configuration is, and other key thermodynamic and geometric decisions before having to go through meanline analysis or later stages in the design process. 

Valentine Moroz. Chief Operating Officer, SoftInWay has observed some definite trends on the simulation side. “We’re seeing a push towards integrated end-to-end solutions both by means of internal development and through partnerships/acquisitions between small software venders and large companies,” he said. “We’re also seeing the industry trend towards use of digital twins, AI, and high-performance computing (HPC).” 

Within the turbomachinery industry, Moroz added, there are three main development strategies: 

1. Complete clean-sheet design for novel applications (especially in areas such as hydrogen, fuel cells, electric vehicles, etc.) where there is no in-house expertise.

2. Trimming and scaling to adjust existing designs to fit into a new design application (the focus here being a reduction in development time, cost, and risk). 

3. Throwing as much computing power as possible at older designs to try and maximize optimization.It is important to fully understand the objec-tives of a design project before beginning.

“When a project kicks off without a clear understanding of the engineering intent across all teams, it often will lead to conflicting ideas about the project requirements across management, the technical team, and the financial team,” said Moroz. “It is important to establish the engi-neering intent early on to understand what tools you actually need to make your project a success.” 

The TURBOdesign Suite by ADT is an integrated platform for the development of turbomachinery systems, starting from meanline design and covering 3D blade design using inverse design technology with automatic optimization capabili-ties. Inverse design is a unique design method to:

• Satisfy the turbomachinery requirements from the first iterations (e.g., compressors pressure ratio, head in pumps or pressure rise in fans);

• To rapidly develop high efficiency blades, using blade loading as an aerodynamic design input parameters which correlates with performances;

• Accurate surrogate models with small design matrix, requiring up to two orders of magni-tude less computational costs compared to conventional direct optimization methods;

• Develop general design know-how by under-standing the blade loading requirements for product series and similar applications;

• A three-dimensional design approach ideally suited for additive manufacturing.

Over the past few years ADT has enhanced its software to facilitate design exploration and opti-mization at various stages of the design workflow and across all turbomachinery applications. This includes development of integrated design explo-ration, optimization and ML/AI loops starting from a handful of basic requirements such an engine log line for example, and development of automated design, analysis and optimization workflows for 3D blade design/volutes linked with 3D CFD/FEA and multiphysics. In addition, direct interfaces and couplings with major CAE systems are available for integration within existing design environments and facilitating data transfer across programs. Finally, interactive, machine learning-driven user guidance during the design process provides feedback based on live user input parameters.

Maturing turbomachinery components and systems efficiency levels combined with tougher competition and stricter regulatory requirements are driving the search for designs that offer higher efficiency, particularly across multiple areas of the operating conditions that coincide with the lifecycle operations of the system. Smaller and more compact turbomachinery packages, too, are required to reduce weight and material costs in electrification and high-volume productions. 

“Some of the main market drivers are an overall lack of skilled turbomachinery design engineers in the industry compared to a growing demand,” said Professor Mehrdad Zangeneh, Managing Director of Advanced Design Technology. “In addition, development of new products required for decar-bonization which asks for novel system cycles and product configurations.”

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) manages the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) Consortium. The NPSS software is an engineering simulation and design environment that enables engineers to develop customizable system models. Applications primarily include aerospace systems, engine models for aircraft propulsion applications, thermal management systems, liquid rocket propulsion systems, and energy generation systems. It comes with a library of standard models and components. SwRI manages the licensing and sales of the NPSS software. Additionally, its engineers provide engineering services for developing custom NPSS models, or designing engineering systems for a wide portfolio of propulsion and energy related systems.

Charles Krouse, NPSS Consortium Manager at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) said that customers, these days, are increasingly interested in (1) electric/hybrid-electric propulsion systems, (2) high-speed propulsions applications, and (3) interfaces between modeling tools. The trend towards electric and hybrid-electric propulsion systems, for example, is being driven primarily by environmental concerns. Although aircraft propulsion only accounts for a small percentage of total carbon emissions (2-3%), emissions reduction targets are approaching quickly, especially for the slow-changing aircraft industry. Furthermore, as the general population sees significant progress in industries such as renewable energy and electric cars, they are beginning to point fingers at the aircraft industry for not adopting environmentally friendly technologies. 

The market for high-speed propulsion applications is being driven by factors such as the hyper-sonic arms race, supersonic business jet startups, and the billionaire space race. With the threat of hypersonic weapons from potential adversaries, the U.S. government is investing in hypersonic weapons. Supersonic jet companies, on the other hand, are being funded by private investors. There seems to be a convergence of technologies that has promised to make supersonic flight affordable, and startups such as Boom Supersonic, Hermeus, Spike Aerospace, and others are racing to beat the incumbents such as Lockheed Martin. 

Krouse added that the trend towards robust interfaces is being driven by the growing number of specialized engineering tools, increasing computational capabilities, and requirements for a heavier focus on model-based design practices. 

“As computational capabilities increase, engineers are able link multiple subsystem models together and simulate more complex models of whole aircraft systems,” said Krouse. “However, linking subsystems models together  between tools requires signif icant computer science expertise to understand the underlying computer architectures.”

NPSS software was traditionally modelled turbomachinery systems. Since turbomachinery applications are now commonly coupled with electric/ hybrid-electric systems, the organization has added the capability to model electric systems in NPSS software, including components such as motors, generators, inverters, and resistors. This capability will be available in its next release. 

SwRI has also developed a supersonic propul-sion model as part of an internal research and development effort. The purpose of this project was to develop improved capabilities for modeling critical components, such as the combustor, inlet, and isolator in high-speed air-breathing propul-sion applications. Additionally, the organization developed a system to demonstrate the transition from subsonic flight to supersonic flight, using a turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC). 

Advances have been made, too, in the area of interfaces. Recently, SwRI developed APIs for NPSS to interface with python and java computer languages, which are in addition to the existing interfaces to standard languages such as C/C++ and Fortran. This allows NPSS users to complete their development work in their preferred programming language and communicate with the NPSS simulation environment. 

In addition, SwRI has been working to resolve some of the challenges connected with additive manufacturing (AM). The AM process can some-times create anomalies such as voids that may lead to fatigue crack formation, growth, and fracture. Customary integrity analysis methods for conven-tional materials have significant limitations for AM applications.

However, a zone-based probabilistic damage tolerance (PDT) methodology is a promising framework for the assessment and certification of AM parts. This approach calculates the probability of fracture due to the formation and growth of fatigue cracks at material or manufacturing anomalies. The component is subdivided into different zones each having different properties, such as material properties, non-destructive inspection (NDI) probability of detection (POD), and anomaly distributions. The Darwin software developed by SwRI provides practical implemen-tation of zone-based PDT methods.

Originally developed to address rogue material anomalies in titanium rotors for aircraft engines, Darwin has expanded to address a range of integ-rity threats. It is used, for example, to ensure the structural integrity of conventional safety-critical components in turbomachinery. NASA and the FAA are actively funding research at SwRI to evaluate the wider use of Darwin for AM applications and to enhance its capabilities towards this goal. 

When asked what trends he had observed, Jeff Erno, Expert Solution Architect, Dassault Systèmes named three: A need for integration between geometry (CAD) and analysis (CAE); home-grown design and analysis solutions (due to lack of commercial off the shelf or COTS software), that were needed in the 1980s and 1990s to be competitive, are needing an upgrade and possibly a rewrite from legacy FORTAN and C programming methods; and demand for collabo-ration and storage for analytical results.

“Innovation is driving legacy home-grown tools to adapt, which is difficult to do with legacy programming methods,” said Erno. “Older more manual methods aren’t cutting it.”

The company has adjusted to these trends via geometry and analysis methods ported into a single, unified platform, promoting fast rerunning of analysis to evaluate performance as the design changes. Such changes are incorporated into Dassalt’s SolidWorks, Catia and Simulia lines. Such tools offer geometry and analysis integrated associatively allowing replay when the design changes. In addition, platform-based collaboration allows designers to work with other designers and with analysts to evaluate performance. 

Rahul Garg, Vice President, Industrial Machinery, Siemens Digital Industries Software, has observed a movement towards improved renewable energy adoption to ensure turbomachinery grows progressively more energy efficient. This includes adopting new fuel types; adjusting their operations for cleaner output; and using inte-grated cloud software to source, manage and store their turbomachinery solutions. 

“Companies are leveraging technology to solve complex issues that arise across the machine lifecycle to continu-ously improve their processes,” said Garg. "For instance, some companies utilize simulation software that leverages a digital twin. This digital twin can help them foresee thermal and dynamic deformations and address the problem before it arises in late-stage development.” 

A major impetus for these trends is digitalization. The benefits include augmented cross-domain collaboration; project data reuse for faster order fulfillment; enhanced machine development via the use of a digital twin; improved lifecycle service maintenance through digital twin and low-code tools; and task automation enabling greater time to devote to functional projects. 

To that end, Siemens developed its cloud-based Xcelerator portfolio to help clients respond to turbomachinery trends and tackle market demands. The company is actively enhancing this cloud approach to simplify adoption through pre-configured industry processes, capturing experience inside templates. Xcelerator offers various design, analysis and engineering solu-tions. Xcelerator products can integrate with other engineering tools.

Design and Engineering Software

New gas turbine orders worldwide (units in red, MW in blue), courtesy of Dora Partners.

The 32nd Annual Meeting Western Turbine Users Inc. (WTUI) conference kicked off this week with its traditional overview of gas turbine trends. Delivered by Mark Axford of Axford Turbine Consultants and Tony Brough of Dora Partners, the big news was a thriving aeroderivative market – and tepid large frame turbine sales.

New gas turbine orders down overall 12% (measured in MW) in 2021 but up on 8.5% in the number of units. But looking deeper at the numbers, aeroderivative unit orders in 2021 were up 11% for the year. When viewed outside of the volatile Russian market, aeroderivative unit orders were up 110%. Further, North American aeroderivative unit and ME orders were both up more than 300% in 2021. The LM6000 accounted for more than 50% of the MW orders and the LM2500+ for about 50% of the unit orders.

Worldwide, the LM2500+ dominates the market. It has a five-year share of 33% of all aeroderivative orders, 25% higher than the LM6000 in second place. The LM2500 and LM2500+ each have fleets in excess of 1200, with the Lm2500+ now leading. The LM6000 lies behind at around 1150.

“The LM2500+ continues to be the strongest GT and has been so for a long time,” said Brough.

The GE/Baker Hughes combo accounts for 80-90% of non-Russian aeroderivative unit orders. And, of course, the LM2500+ and LM6000 are the main contributors. This fits with an overall trend of lower sales in power generation and higher sales in oil & gas. In North America, the number of mechanical drive units sold in the past seven years is double what it was in the previous seven years.

Whatever the forecast, renewables are always expected to be up sharply. Yet, Brough believes gas turbines have a strong role to play over the long term. He noted all the attention on hydrogen but said this market will experience slow but steady progress. Meanwhile almost 400 hydrogen electrolyzer projects are already operational or under construction and nearly 500 more are at the feasibility or concept stage. About 50 plan to convert hydrogen into ammonia as a storage mechanism.

“It is unwise to dismiss hydrogen, but a lot of challenges have yet to be overcome in its utilization,” said Brough.

North American market share in MWs for aeroderivatives. Courtesy of Dora Partners.

Mark Axford continued the presentation by showing the long downtrend in the gas turbine sector. 2021 was down 12% in overall gas turbine MW orders (including large-frame machines) and up slightly in unit orders.

“What was an annual GT market of 60 GW a few years ago is now a 30 GW market,’ said Axford.

But he echoed Broughs sentiments about the aeroderivative sector.Texas was a major contributor to the 2021 sure in aero orders, partly in response to the early 2021 power grid failures in that state.

He went into more detail about aero orders. Siemens Energy managed 19 sales in 2021 (up from zero in 2020) of its A35, A45, and A65 machines (formerly Rolls-Royce) yet it has ended their production.Mitsubishi’s stewardship of the FT9 MobilePac (formerly PWPS) pushed sales from 0 to 6 for the year.

There were 22 LM2500+ G4s ordered in 2020 and 47 in 2021. From 0 orders of the LM2500 Xpress in 2020, GE managed 17 last year. The TM2500 trailer increased from six to nine orders, and the LM6000 from 4 to 26 in 2021. GE LM9000 had a dire year, dropping to 0 from 20 in 2020. And the LMS100 continues fail to register any sales for the second year running.

GE U.S. aero orders in 2021 included 6 LM2500Xpress’ to Colorado Springs Utilities, 10 LM6000s to TVA, 2 TM2500 G4s to Entergy of Louisiana, 4 TM2500 G4’s to two power plants in northern California, 4 LM6000s to the Salt River Project in Arizona, and two LM6000s to WattBridge (ProEnergy in Texas).

“The LM2500Xpress is less expensive than a trailer-mounted TM2500 and can be relocated,” said Axford. “RWE in Germany also ordered 11 LM2500Xpress units.”

Meanwhile, ProEnergy has carved out a niche for itself. It refurbishes LM6000 gensets, making them more affordable, especially for those running less than 1000 hours. Its subsidiary WattBridge Energy owns and operates peaking plants within the Texas ERCOT system. This includes 38 LM6000s already and more are planned.

How about 2022? Axford forecasts MW orders to be down 10% in the U.S. and it to be an overall down year worldwide, particular for large-frame machines.

“But it should be a good year for small aero, especially if restrictions on oil and gas are lifted,” said Axford.

Finally, he expressed skepticism about the realities of hydrogen generation replacing natural gas for power generation.

“There are dozens of on-going test projects with hydrogen fuel but in my judgment, hydrogen will not become a mainstream fuel for gas turbines,” said Axford. “Perhaps a niche market will evolve for blending 5-10% hydrogen into the gas supply of regional markets.”

Strong Aeroderivative Market, Weak Large Frame 

A PTA machinery train by MAN Energy Solutions including an integrally geared compressor, steam turbine, expander and motor/generator.

MAN Energy Solutions (MAN ES), a daughter company of Volkswagen, employs around 14,000 people at over 120 sites globally. As a major player in advanced engineering for more than 250 years, it has built a portfolio of technology solutions for the marine, energy and industrial sectors.


Gas and Steam Turbines
MAN ES offers modular, heavy-duty single- and twin-shaft gas turbines in a power range between 6 MW and 12 MW. It is currently upgrading this portfolio to operate on up to 100 % hydrogen. In addition, it offers expansion turbines, which are becoming important in energy recovery in many industrial processes.
On the steam turbine side, MAN ES can deliver back-pressure or condensing-type models in a power output range from about 1 MW up to about 50 MW. For mechanical drive the range goes from about 1 MW to about 80 MW. Such machines have been part of the company’s bread and butter business for a great many years. It boasts 1,350 customer references.


A centrifugal compressor train for offshore gas production by MAN ES.

Compressors
Compressors and turnkey compressor train solutions manufactured by MAN Energy Solutions sit at the heart of many processes in various industry sectors such as industrial gases, oil and gas, chemical and petrochemical, LNG, CO2, urea, purified terephthalic acid or nitric acid. The portfolio includes centrifugal, axial, integrally geared, isothermal and process gas screw compressors as well as vacuum blowers for the paper industry.
“I see great potential for the future of conventional machines, which can be further enhanced for hydrogen and ammonia applications,” said Mathias Scherer André, Senior Vice President, Head of Sales & Project Management Industries at MAN Energy Solutions. “Our customers in the tissue, paper and cardboard production increasingly purchase our TURBAIR vacuum blowers because of the reduced water and electricity consumption compared to conventional water ring pumps.”
In addition to a wide range of conventional centrifugal compressors with a vertical or horizontal parting line, the company offers oil-free hermetically sealed centrifugal compressors with integrated high-speed motor drives. These come under the product lines HOFIM and MOPICO. They present broad application possibilities and benefits. Whether as subsea, unmanned topside, or even as a heat pump unit, the machine concept can be configured for different demands and equipped with application-specific features.
The HOFIM motor-compressor was initially developed as a solution for gas storage. But customers now apply the technology in various other segments. Most recently, it has been deployed as the core element of MAN’s new cross-sector ETES (Electro-Thermal Energy Storage) Heat Pump unit. This is based on the operating principle of a heat pump, but on an industrial scale.

Two ETES Heat Pump systems are being installed this year in a new district heating plant in the Danish port city of Esbjerg. With an overall heating capacity of 50 MW, the plant will supply around 100,000 local inhabitants with approximately 235,000 MWh of heat annually. Renewable power from nearby wind farms and seawater will be used as a heat source for the generation of heating energy. The new plant will guarantee an emission-free alternative to the city’s current coal-fired power plant.
“This represents a new chapter in the success story of our HOFIM compressor – an important one that marks the path towards a decarbonized future,” said Scherer André. “Energy in all its shapes and sizes plays a fundamental role in the future of our planet. That is why MAN ES is contributing to the climate goals established in the Paris Agreement.”


Accordingly, the company is:
Advocating a Maritime Energy Transition and offering a range of alternative propulsion technologies to reduce fuel consumption and emissions.
Developing new technologies for the generation and storage of energy to deal with fluctuating renewable energies and lower the carbon footprint of power plants.
Implementing digital transformation to make industrial processes more efficient and reliable.


Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage
MAN ES actively supports its customers in the reduction, balancing, and avoiding of CO2 emissions by offering CO2 compression technology solutions with the integrally geared product line. In the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) field, MAN ES has more than 30 running references around the world.
Aker Carbon Capture has entered into a cooperation partnership with MAN ES to offer energy efficient CCUS compression solutions. Jointly developed ‘Carbon Capture Heat Recovery’ technology (CCWHR) is applicable to large facilities, such as the Heidelberg Cement Norcem cement plant in Brevik, Norway, where the world’s first carbon capture facility for large-scale cement production will soon be realized. From the summer of 2024, 400,000 tons of CO2 will be captured annually from the factory – corresponding to 50 % of its overall emissions. Carbon will be compressed and liquefied with technologies from Aker Carbon Capture and MAN ES, and transported by ship to an underground storage location.


Hydrogen Turbomachinery
MAN ES already has decades of hydrogen compression experience, especially for refinery applications. In the mid- to long-term, the company sees a huge demand for turbocompressors to transport and store large quantities of green hydrogen. With the acquisition of H-Tec Systems, its technology portfolio now spans from green hydrogen production with electrolysers, across transport, and storage, to downstream processes and end consumers of carbon-free fuels in the marine and energy sector.
“We are open for pilot projects in this field to demonstrate the technical and economic viability of large-scale state-of-the-art hydrogen technologies,” said Scherer André.

MAN employee using the augmented reality-assisted MAN EyeTech tool


Turbomachinery Services
MAN PrimeServ operates a vast network of service centers all over the world. Its focus is shifting away from simple parts and on-site maintenance towards extensive digital monitoring of compression equipment. It provides a suite of digital services to get more out of the equipment at lower cost, such as dynamic simulation, simulation-based control software, FAT (Final Acceptance Test), remote virtual commissioning, operator training simulator, virtual sensors, performance monitoring, and PrimeServ assist for remote monitoring with its connection to the MAN CEON Cloud, MAN’s digital service platform.
“The journey through unmanned operation to fully autonomous operation is well on the way,” said Scherer André.
Regional PrimeServ service centers offer long-term service agreements, inspections and spare parts deliveries, revamps, and complex rebuilds. Customers can utilize these services to have turbomachines operating unmanned or they can leave the monitoring of machine health status to MAN ES by opting for the PrimeServ Assist application. In addition, MAN EyeTech enables immediate support for troubleshooting activities or overhauls. This augmented reality-assisted application allows mobile collaboration to be set up via data glasses, or other video-capable terminals like smartphones or laptops.
“Digital tools proved to be of paramount importance after the pandemic’s arrival: since 2020, we have successfully executed fully remote commissioning of compressor trains,” said Scherer André.

MAN ES emphasizes digital tools and decarbonization

Turbine blades are quite literally on the cutting edge of turbomachinery innovation. Finding materials and techniques that can cope with high stress, speed, and temperature has been a constant challenge. But a new material could solve several problems and open up new horizons. Chief among these are the 65% barrier for combined cycle gas turbine efficient and substantially lowering the carbon footprint of turbomachinery.

But first, a little history. Overcoming problems like fatigue, microstructural damage, and creep deformation has led to many breakthroughs over the years. For example, many blades are manufactured from precipitation-hardened nickel superalloys with Nimonic and Inconel being two of the most popular for gas turbine blades. There are dozens of varieties of these alloys, each with different qualities. Some are particularly good at dealing with high strength at high temperatures.

But these materials always needed help to keep temperatures down. Thus, turbine blades contain rows of hollow channels for cooling to remove heat from the superalloy. Another technique is coating with a thin ceramic film to reduce heat flow. These thermal barrier coatings (TBC) have higher thermal stability and lower thermal conductivity than the alloys they protect. Thus, they can survive at temperatures beyond the melting point of the superalloy. Yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) is a commonly used TBC, which is bonded to the surface.

Casting techniques, too, have helped advance the state of the art. There are various ways to cast a turbine blade such as single crystal which is a method that seeks to eliminate the grain boundaries that form during traditional metal casting. The result is a blade of columnar crystals or grains aligned along the axis of stress to reduce creep and other forms of damage.

Yet temperature remains a problem. Some industrial gas turbine OEMs have made progress pushing the boundaries beyond 1,600 degrees C. Progress has been slow.

To push blade technology to the next level a new material is undergoing testing. Known as polyose, initial results from multiphysics Finite Element (FE) nonlinear stress analysis look promising. The properties of polyose include a smooth finish for better aerodynamics, malleability into any form or shape required, and its incredibly light weight. As it is an organic material, it marks a major stride in lowering the carbon footprint of the entire turbomachinery industry. If found to be workable in real-world gas turbines, this could bring the total weight down by an order of magnitude or more.

“On paper, this looks like this material that could really bring down the price of turbine blades,” said Professor Poly Saccharides of the Lossiemouth Laboratory for Thermodynamic Origami. “Obviously there are still challenges ahead such as robustness and flammability, but, knock on wood, these can be overcome.”

With a molar mass of 162.1406 g/mol, and a density of 1.5 g/cm³, the chemical formula of polyose is (C6H10O5)n.

Detractors, though, think this research will fold and fail to live up to its initial hype. They question the scientific integrity of the work, and its attempt to paper over the cracks to be found in a faulty initial hypothesis. Some even go so far as to call the whole thing one big joke celebrating the first day of April.

Revolutionary new material for turbine blades 

The Tate & Lyle corn milling plant in Indiana recently replaced its coal-fired boilers with a new CHP system.

It's s far from easy to get a natural gas power plant built these days. According to Industrial Info Resources (IIR) data, only about 11% of new generation scheduled for the next five year will be natural gas (the rest will be wind and solar). Developers and asset owners who have delayed or cancelled gas-fired, new-build generation typically cite “market forces” as the reason for their decision. That has led to the cancellation or delay of approximately 48 new-build gas-fired power plants in 25 states that were scheduled to begin construction in 2021 (see Turbomachinery Handbook 2022 cover story, U.S. Power Industry Outlook 2022).
With utilities and independent power producers struggling to bring new combined cycle power plants online, however, there is one area where natural gas-based generation is enjoying real success – Combined Heat & Power (CHP).
According to Entropy Research, more than 80 GW of CHP has been installed in the U.S. at more than 4,600 industrial and commercial facilities. In total, that’s more than 7% of the nation’s generation capacity and 12% of total generation. The vast majority of these installations operate on natural gas.
Part of the reason for CHP success is that it offers a wealth of environmental and economic benefits. As well as offering greater power reliability than the electric grid can usually offer, those deploying CHP cite significant reductions in the cost of energy. Further, they gain process steam, facility heating, and in some cases, an extra revenue stream by feeding excess power into the local grid. And when natural disaster strikes, CHP systems often continue to run in facilities while the grid around them is down.


Start up manager Spencer Schath and Global Energy Lead Nicholas Waibel of Tate & Lyle beside the newly commissioned Siemens Energy SGT-700 gas turbine.

Eliminating Coal Boilers
Tate & Lyle, a provider of food and beverage ingredients and solutions, recently upgraded a facility in Lafayette, Indiana from coal boilers to CHP.
“Natural gas-fired cogeneration brings cleaner energy online and helps us move away from the use of coal boilers,” said Nick Waibel, Global Energy Lead at Tate & Lyle. “We have set a goal of eliminating coal from all our sites by 2025. Our Decatur, IL facility, is also in the midst of replacing coal boilers with natural gas. 

The Lafayette South plant is one of several the company uses to process 2% of the U.S. annual corn crop. The company takes shelled corn (maize), separates the kernels into their core components (starch, oil, protein and fiber), and processes them to create a range of products such as specialty sweeteners and bulk ingredients which are distributed globally. The complexity of corn processing requires an array of boilers, tanks, pumps, distillation columns, milling equipment, separation screens, and evaporators.

“With an eye to the future, our Siemens Energy gas turbines will be able to eventually operate on hydrogen,” said Waibel. 

Why CHP?
“Natural gas CHP is an outstanding technology with synergistic benefits for manufacturing plants,” said Waibel. “The thermal demands of the manufacturing process (steam, hot air) drive the efficiency on the system much higher than if we were to provide the electricity and thermal energy to the plant separately. The overall energy efficiency increases from around 50-60% to over 80%, resulting in a big drop in overall emissions and major cost savings. In addition, cogeneration improves plant reliability by providing a local source of power.”
The basic CHP configuration at the Lafayette South food ingredient processing plant is as follows: two Siemens Energy SGT-700 gas turbines and two Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSGs) provided by Rentech Boiler Systems in a combined cycle arrangement.
The Siemens Energy units are designed for high output/efficiency and lower emissions with a wide fuel range capability. Due to high exhaust heat, they are well suited to CHP. These units include a third-generation dual-fuel Dry Low Emissions (DLE) combustion system which keeps NOx emission levels low.
“The gas turbine solution from Siemens Energy matches up nicely with our plant design and provides what we need from an energy and environmental impact,” said Waibel.
He explained that with gas turbine performance having large seasonal variation in Indiana, the company chose units that would be able to provide enough power for the plant 365 days a year.
“The seasonality of gas turbines gives a fairly tight window of operation where the turbine can cover 100% of the power demand on a hot summer’s day but have enough turndown on a cold winter’s day to meet emissions requirements,” said Waibel. “The twin SGT-700 design fitted right into that window.”
A big part of the deal was concern about the turbines being future proof. With so much talk about hydrogen and the elimination of fossil fuels, Tate & Lyle wanted to know that their new machines were designed to run on natural gas, hydrogen, or a mixture of both. Although for the foreseeable future, they will run on natural gas.
“With an eye to the future, our Siemens Energy gas turbines will be able to eventually operate on hydrogen,” said Waibel. “In these dynamic times, we had to ensure our investment will serve us in both the near term and the long term. It’s good to know our turbines can make the transition to hydrogen when that supply comes online in the future.”


"The custom-built Rentech HRSGs with duct firing are robust pieces of equipment that are able to provide the plant steam requirements in a variety of process conditions," said Waibel. 

Steam Demands
Steam from the CHP plant plays a vital role in corn milling processes as well as in the heating of the facility.
“The thermal demands of the manufacturing process allow manufacturers to extract even more energy out of the exhaust stream than what can be utilized in a combined cycle electricity plant,” said Waibel. “In addition, the turbine exhaust gas can be duct fired to produce more steam at a greater efficiency (essentially 100%) than standard natural gas boilers provide.”
He’s talking about supplemental duct firing, a feature included with the Rentech HRSGs. Waste heat is captured from the turbine exhaust and transformed into steam by the HRSGs. It is then fed into the plant for use in various corn-related processes, as well as to steam turbines as part of combined cycle operations. As supplemental duct burners are included, Tate & Lyle can run them regularly to boost steam production when required.
“Similar to our relationship with Siemens Energy, Tate & Lyle has enjoyed a successful history with Rentech heat recovery boilers,” said Waibel. “Building relationships with competent and high-quality suppliers with proven track records helps to build synergies between our production plants. The custom-built Rentech HRSGs with duct firing are robust pieces of equipment that are able to provide the plant steam requirements in a variety of process conditions.”
Although the plant hasn’t been running long, early results are positive: Waibel notes stronger grid resiliency, greater process efficiency, carbon emissions slashed by more than 30%, and a drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 40%. By replacing aging coal boilers, generating electricity on-site, and recovering heat overall energy efficiency has been boosted while substantially reducing energy costs and cutting water usage by 5%. The plant manager also reports greater process efficiency and power resiliency.
“We take our responsibility to the environment seriously and are committed to doing more to care for the planet, including lowering our greenhouse gas emissions by using cleaner energy,” said Travis Montoya, Lafayette South Plant Manager for Tate & Lyle.
This upgrade project, however, goes beyond the needs of one facility. Stepping back to view the big picture, the company has set targets for 2030 to deliver: a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions; all of its waste to be beneficially used; a 15% drop in water use, and the elimination of coal from its operations by 2025. Getting rid of the aging coal boilers is just one step towards these goals, although it plays a big part in divesting itself of coal usage.
“The Lafayette South Plant project not only helps meet our sustainability goals in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water use – it’s also a project that saves us money as a company, so it was really a win-win for us,” says Waibel. “Eliminating coal and going into a clean-burning fuel is the right next step for our plant.”


The Rentech heat recovery boiler online and ready for operation. 

Not the First CHP Rodeo
This isn’t the first CHP installation for Tate & Lyle. The company has several CHP plants running throughout its operations. But the Lafayette South project was inspired by a similar one at another of the company’s corn milling facilities in Loudon, Tennessee.
Back in 2017, the company installed a similar CHP system at that site: two Siemens Energy SGT-700 gas turbines and two Retech HRSGs with supplemental duct firing to replace aging coal boilers. Just like Lafayette, the results at Loudon were impressive: a year-over-year reduction of around 35% in GHGs at the site. The addition of that one CHP plant slashed companywide CO2 emissions by around 10%, as well as leading to improved energy and operational efficiency. The plant manager estimated a reduction in emissions of more than 2,000 tons per year, while satisfying all facility steam needs, and enabling Tate & Lyle to switch from grid power to generating its own electricity. And with the Rentech HRSGs being much more efficient than the old coal boilers, fuel costs were considerably lowered.
The drivers behind the 2017 upgrade, then, were both environmental and economic. As well as the steadily rising price of coal, stricter emissions requirements would have necessitated the addition of expensive pollution control equipment to keep the coal boilers compliant.
“Changing regulations and policies have huge repercussions,” said Waibel. “The environmental targets we have set are some of the most ambitious in our industry.”
Instead of investing in flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology to stay within Boiler MACT limits, the company decided to spend a little more to revamp and expand its steam and electricity production capabilities – and establish an environmentally responsible pathway for the future.


Energy Stars
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Energy Star certification was recently awarded to the corn wet mills in Loudon, Tennessee and Lafayette South, Indiana. Having met strict energy efficiency performance levels, they are the only corn refining plants to earn this accolade. Energy Star was introduced by EPA in 1992 as a voluntary, market-based partnership to reduce GHGs through energy efficiency.
“This reflects the dedication and hard work of our operations team, especially our technicians who are committed to running these mills as efficiently as possible,” said Nick Waibel, Global Energy Lead at Tate & Lyle.

CHP upgrades

The fiftieth annual Turbomachinery Symposium took place in mid-December 2021 in Houston. Texas. Attendees were delighted to be face to face with their peers once again. For most, it had been two years since their last industry show. Just about everyone commented that being at a live show highlighted how unsatisfactory virtual events were in comparison. Clearly, live events are a needed and wanted commodity in the industry.

As expected, attendance at the show was a little down. With oversees visitors at a minimum due to various travel restrictions, and some companies within the U.S. forbidding travel, that was to be expected. Despite that, the event attendance was only 30% down compared to 2019. The exhibit floor suffered a similar drop. However, most vendors were satisfied by the event. Several said they had about half the booth visitors but got as many leads and inquiries as they experienced two years ago. One person said, “half the visitors, and four times the interest.”

The welcome address by Eric Petersen, Director of the Turbomachinery Laboratory at Texas A&M University, kicked off the show. He updated the audience on what had been happening over the past two years, the activities of the Turbomachinery Lab, the Industrial Advisory Committee for the Symposium, and the programs of the Turbomachinery Research Consortium (TRC). The biggest news is the building of a new wing for the Turbomachinery Lab.

Following the keynote, scores of technical sessions took place over the next three days. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) delivered a talk on supercritical CO2 power cycles (sCO2). There has been much talk about the transformational nature of this technology for a decade or more. But commercial applications are only just beginning to appear such as those from Hanwha Power Systems.

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide power cycles provide higher thermal efficiency compared to traditional heat-source energy conversion including conventional fossil and alternative energy sources. This reduces capital costs due to smaller equipment footprints and design modularity. In addition, sCO2 allows for rapid cyclic load and source following to balance solar and wind energy power swings.

Compressing CO2 is not new. But it has been accomplished mostly at lower vapor pressures or at higher pressure and lower temperatures as a liquid. Compression near the dome (near critical pressure and temperature – approximately 95°F and 1,233 psi) has the advantage of a low head requirement. To then pressurize from 1,233 psi (the target inlet pressure of power cycles) to 3,916 psi, only a single compressor stage is required. With far less power needed for compression, thermal efficiency is increased.

Stephan Cich, Group Leader in SwRI’s Machinery Section, listed some of the favorable fluid properties of sCO2 such as low specific heat, high density, and high thermal conductivity. That can mean only having to build a single-stage, high-speed compressor rather than multi-stage low-speed machines.

But there are challenges. Around the transition phase of sCO2between liquid and supercritical fluid, for example, there are massive swings in density and enthalpy. There are also mechanical instabilities, flow challenges, and potential for chocking.

“A high gas mean density and higher speed leads to high potential for mechanical instabilities,” said Cich. “There is also a need to find the right balance between aerodynamics and rotordynamics in sCO2 compressor design as these two areas tend to be in conflict.”

An Elliott Group session gave an overview of the various types of compressors and air blowers used in the oil and gas industry. Brian Pettinato, Manager of Aero and Structural Dynamics at Elliott, briefly covered the basics, applications, and operation of compressors, expanders, steam, and gas turbines in refineries.

Modern refineries utilize a wide range of turbomachinery that must flexibly operate under harsh fluid conditions with long life and minimal maintenance downtime. In refinery service, the fluids pose unique aerodynamic, materials, and structural design challenges including wet gas service, high gas path temperatures, and corrosive, flammable, and sometimes toxic service. These requirements make the design, packaging, controls, application, and operation of turbomachines in refineries both complex and challenging. Operational and technical details or turbine and compression applications such as gas boost, refrigeration, hydrogen recycle, blow gas compression, coke gas compression, reformer recycle compression, steam turbine drivers, and gas turbine drives were discussed including alkylation, reforming, hydrocracking, fluid cracking, power generation, and gas boost.

There followed a discussion of the materials used in compressors delivered by Derrick Bauer of Elliott Group. He said impellers typically use low alloy steel (4140/4340) and martensitic stainless steel as they are highly stressed components that require materials with high yield strength. Austenitic steels are not strong enough.

“Material selection should consider the right materials to eliminate the risk of stress corrosion cracking (SCC),” said Bauer.

The compressor shaft, on the other hand, is typically made from low-allow steel. Stainless steel is generally only needed in shafts if highly corrosive process gas is present. Shafts are not normally at risk of SCC. It is the couplings that are under high stress, not the shaft. Internal stationary components are usually made from structural-grade carbon steel and casings from carbon steel. With heat treatment, pressure-vessel carbon steel can tolerate temperatures as low as -50°F. Bauer said increased nickel content allows for lower temperatures, and cladding can be utilized to address corrosion issues.

Another Elliott session covered turbomachinery for olefins. Also known as alkenes, olefins is a term generally denoting hydrocarbons that contain at least one double bond. Because of their high reactivity, availability, and low cost, they are used primarily in petrochemical synthesis, plastics, synthetic rubber, and chemical fibers.The talkoutlined the various compressors, expanders, and steam turbines used in the plastics industry.

Plastic manufacturing processes such as ethylene plants use a wide range of turbomachinery that must flexibly operate under harsh fluid conditions with long-life and minimal maintenance downtime. Cracked gas feed-gas, propylene, and ethylene refrigeration compressor trains are nearly always custom engineered to meet the high-volume, high-efficiency requirements of modern ethylene plants. In ethylene services, the fluids pose aerodynamic, materials and structural challenges related to wet gas service, fouling, and their high gas path temperatures.

Elliott has developed a process centrifugal compressor capable of dealing with very high flow. The use of increasingly higher flow coefficient stages in centrifugal compression services such as LNG and olefin applications has been a trend since the 1990s.

“For process centrifugal compressor applications, achieving higher flow rates through a given sized compressor can reduce capital cost,” said Vishal Jariwala, Aerodynamics Engineer, Elliott Group. “Key technologies for enabling such higher flow rates are high flow coefficient (design ϕ > 0.12) and very high flow coefficient (design ϕ > 0.20) aerodynamic staging featuring covered impellers.”

Applications involving very high flow (VHF) coefficient staging have only first been applied since around 2010. Elliott has been working on a family of very high flow (VHF) stages with nominal design flow coefficient of 0.24 and moderate to high Machine Mach Number (Mu) of 0.88. The stage aerodynamic performance (range and efficiency) is optimized while still meeting targets related to mechanical robustness and rotor dynamic usability.

“A protype VHF state impeller has a covered mixed flow discharge with seven full and seven splitter blades,” said Jariwala.

Various impeller adjustments have been made to optimize the design. On the stationary component side, for example, small changes were made such as a mixed flow diffuser, a diffusion controller crossover passage, and a low vane-count return channel. Such changes have resulted in the VHF stage’s higher efficiency over the entire range.

In the real world these design adjustments have resulted in cutting thousands of pounds of weight from Elliott’s large 110 M compressor. Two shop orders have been completed and shipped with the VHF stage families. As well as a weight reduction of 23-24%, the benefits include increased flow capacity of 32% and favorable performance characteristics due to aerodynamics changes. Its tested performance compares well with its predicted performance.

John Crane attended the event to showcase a wealth of new products.

John Crane Sense Turbo is a dry gas seal digital diagnostics solution to monitor conditions at the heart of the compressor without negatively impacting seal performance or life. Sensors embedded directly into a compressor's dry gas seal deliver continuous, real-time insight to identify issues and ensure corrective actions are taken to extend the useful life of the seal. It is part of the John Crane Sense platform ecosystem. Throughout 2022, John Crane will launch two additional digital monitoring solutions focused on wet seals and monitoring other plant equipment.

The High Flow Liquid/Gas Coalescer (HFC) is targeted for refinery, petrochemical and chemical plant applications. It removes aerosols and solids from process and fuel gas streams. Typical process applications include burner tip protection in furnaces, molecular sieve drier bed protection, and amine unit protection. Product benefits include:

Very high separation efficiency of 99.9% for improved process uptime.

Extended filter element lifetime (>12 months) to reduce operating costs.

Increased gas handling capacity (210 am3/hr) per element and welded pressure vessel design results in lower capital costs.

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) designed for optimum dimensions of the elements and flow distribution.

In the first quarter of 2022, John Crane is launching a couple of new products. The Type 2874HTC incorporates HTC (high-temperature, corrosion-resistant) seal faces and edge-welded metal bellows to provide superior stability and reliable operation at temperatures up to 425°C (800°F). Its outward pumping spiral groove technology results in a dry gas seal that can run at all operating ranges. In corrosive refinery applications, this reduces life-cycle costs compared to conventional wet seals and systems and eliminates problems associated with coking barrier fluids and fouled heat exchangers.

The Type 8648VRS Dual-pressurized Sealwith NPSS seal technology is an expansion of a product that has flourished in the midstream pipeline segment. A new dual-pressurized option for high-pressure pipeline applications ensures full containment of liquids. Its pressurized arrangement isolates the sealing interface from the process liquid, which can vary in composition, volatility and can be subjected to extreme ambient conditions. The Type 8648VRS allows operators to meet containment and safety guidelines while maintaining asset utilization across their network.

The Type 93LR Separation Seal is a non-contacting segmented bushing with a balanced lift-off design that minimizes the gas consumption in both pressure and flow control. The Type 93LR has been designed to meet the requirements of the API 692 standard and reduce the consumption of separation gas. It can be retrofitted to installed dry gas seals in the John Crane product range with minimum modifications. Applications include centrifugal compressors and other rotating equipment in the oil and gas and petrochemical industries. Benefits include:

Balanced lift-off carbon ring minimizes the gas consumption in both pressure control and flow control

Self-centralizing grooves ensure dynamic seal concentricity to the shaft/sleeve

Static restriction to oil ingress when separation gas fails

Consumption independent of the temperature change

No restriction to the gas type or its dew point

The FCF Seal Gas Filtration System removes liquid and particle contamination and maximizes reliable dry gas seal operation. The filters comply with international pressure vessel and design codes and were designed in alignment with API 614 and designed for API 692. The new FCF Series, designed with a combination of new flow conditioning technologies, delivers up to 50% lower pressure drop at start-up and in operation.

The GS 54 Global Standardized Plan 54 uses best-practice design to provide clean, cooled and filtered barrier fluid, optimal seal performance and pump up-time. The GS 54 is a standard solution that significantly reduces specification review and delivery schedules and delivers pressurized barrier system control for optimal mechanical seal performance and reliability.

John Crane Diamondtreated silicon carbide offers various performance benefits. Seal face treatments are available as an enhancement to many John Crane seal families. It uses one of the Earth's hardest materials to improve mechanical seal reliability and performance in difficult applications involving poor lubricating fluids, abrasive particulates or slurries, and upset operational conditions such as intermittent dry running. John Crane Diamond's extreme wear resistance enables treated seals to handle abrasive or erosive conditions beyond conventional hard seal face materials. In addition, John Crane Diamond has a low coefficient of friction which results in lower heat generation and energy consumption on the motor.

The next Turbomachinery Symposium will return to its usual time slow. It will be held from September 13 to 15, 2022 in Houston. For more information, visit https://tps.tamu.edu/

SHOW REPORT TURBOMACHINERY SYMPOSIUM

Following the commencement of hostilities in Ukraine, Germany is reconsidering its long-term energy policy by extending the life of coal and nuclear facilities scheduled for closure. This move would lower dependency on Russian natural gas, which currently meet a sizable portion of Germany’s energy needs. The nation also plans to build more liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities.

The nuclear U-turn is particularly surprising as the deadline for closure of all German nuclear plants is 2022. Remaining coal facilities were given until 2030.

"The events of the past few days have shown us that responsible, forward-looking energy policy is decisive not only for our economy and the environment. It is also decisive for our security. We must change course to overcome our dependence on imports from individual energy suppliers.”

His plan includes the construction of LNG terminals in Brunsbuettel and Wilhelmshaven, both with direct access to the North Sea. The chancellor also plans to raise national natural gas reserves. This move could eventually signal an end to policy that marginalized natural gas power generation. A massive combined cycle plant in Irsching built a decade ago, for example, has been unable to run profitably due to restrictive grid policies that place its output at the back of the line.

Such moves follow Germany’s halting of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project which would have brought Russian gas to Western Europe.

German energy U-turn 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) just published a 

 (STEO). It forecasts that “rising electricity generation from renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will reduce generation from fossil fuel-fired power plants over the next two years.”

The share of generation for U.S. non-hydropower renewable sources, including solar and wind, is forecast to grow from 13% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. During that same period, the share of natural gas is predicted to fall from 37% in 2021 and to 34% by 2023, and the coal share from 23% to 22%.

“One of the most significant shifts in the mix of U.S. electricity generation over the past 10 years has been the rapid expansion of renewable energy resources,” said Tyler Hodge, a senior economist in the Office of Energy Analysis at the EIA.

The rise of renewables has certainly been meteoric. It now generates 20 times more power than at the end of 2011. Coal’s fall from grace has been even sharper. And with more coal plants being shuttered over the next couple of years, expect coal’s share to plummet below 20% soon.

“We see the retirement of coal continuing to move forward,” said Britt Burt VP of Research Power for Industrial Info Resources. “Since 2012 there has been more than 107 GW of coal fired capacity retired in the U.S., and we are tracking an additional 67 GW of coal-fired capacity scheduled for retirement from 2022-2030, according to Industrial Info’s Global Market Intelligence. During that same time period 2022-2030 there is more than 200 GW of solar and wind capacity scheduled for construction starts with more to come.”

Solar is the big winner. The grid had 63 GW of solar power generating capacity (not output) operating at the end of 2021. The forecast is for capacity to jump by 21 GW in 2022 and 25 GW in 2023. Further, 7 GW of wind generating capacity will be added in 2022 and another 4 GW in 2023. Operating wind capacity totaled 135 GW at the end of 2021.

The tone of the EIA release overall is one of hopeful optimism that natural gas is falling off the cliff in the same way as coal. Yes, there will be reduced need for fossil-fueled generation over the next two years. But the decline will be felt primarily in the coal sector.

Hodge pointed out that natural gas prices surged to an average of $4.88 per million British thermal units in 2021, more than double the average cost in 2020. That is probably the dominant factor in drop from 39% in 2020 to 37% at the end of 2021. That prompted a slight uptick in coal generation to 23%. Unless natural gas prices remain high, coal will soon falter and natural gas will probably regain that lost ground.

“Although we expect natural gas prices for electric generators to decline, the operating costs of renewable generators will continue to be generally lower than natural gas-fired units,” he said. “We expect that regions of the country with the largest increases in renewable capacity, such as Texas and the Midwest/Central regions, will experience the largest reductions in natural gas generation.”

Certainly, renewable generation should continue to rise steadily for the rest of the decade. But natural gas remains the top source of power in the nation. It is unlikely to relinquish that position for at least through 2030, and probably longer.

“There is over 64 GW of natural gas fired capacity that has the potential to start construction for the remainder of this decade,” said Burt. “This has the potential to increase unless battery storage to support renewable energy is built in a rapid fashion. Another constraint to the build out of renewable energy is the lack of transmission infrastructure to support it.”

U.S. power generation forecast for the next two years 